Butterfly effect in running

No, not that kind! Not the butterfly in your stomach just before the start of a race.

I'm referring to the actual kind, as in the title of Edward Lorenz's presentation at the 1972 conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?" (The original ground-breaking paper was in 1963, Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.) An unexpected research result led Lorenz to the insight that, in nature, small changes can have large consequences. This insight became the founding principle of chaos theory, which, along with the butterfly effect, eventually got introduced to the general audience in 1987 via James Gleick's best seller, Chaos: Making a New Science. Here's Wikipedia's summary of the butterfly effect and butterfly effect in popular culture. The butterfly effect, also known as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions," has the corollary that forecasting the future can be nearly impossible. It's regarding this latter corollary that popular culture version of the butterfly effect usually gets wrong. The butterfly effect has become a metaphor for the existence of seemingly insignificant moments that alter history and shape destinies.

In his fascinating new book, "The Sports Gene," David Epstein (Sports Illustrated) describes how, with chess players, small differences in talent (initial conditions) can lead to large differences in outcome, given the same amount of practice. Epstein was careful to refer to this as a "sort of butterfly effect of expertise." "Sort of" because this butterfly effect is not that of Lorenz. This butterfly effect, though it has "sensitive dependence on initial conditions," does not have the non-forecasting corollary, at least not in the Lorenz sense. A key idea in Epstein's book is that exceptional talent (initial conditions) plus lots of correct practice (repetition) plus help in timing or favorable circumstances or environment are necessary for greatness. The first two, initial conditions and repetition, are generally predictive. The third, favorable environment, is the variable that clouds up the forecasting of outcome. This "sort of" butterfly effect informs a multitude of other areas of endeavor, besides various types of sports. In music, a good example is Hilary Hahn, who had the "gift of nature," practiced 4-5 hours a day, and had supporting parents and teachers, who created the favorable environment.

As relates to running, the "sort of" butterfly effect really highlights the importance of form and small adjustments to it. Three examples:

1. I've previously written on how a matter of 1/4 inch between the two sides of the right heel of the shoes I was wearing at the time (Nike Free), at about 48,000 strides per week (at my then weekly mileage), meant an extra 500 ft. of vertical distance that side of the foot had to stretch. That 1/4 inch "initial condition" mattered!
2. Until recently (spring of this year), on easy runs, I've taken two strides per breath in and out (2-2). With the increased training I've been doing, especially since the end of 2012, my #strides/breath has increased to 3-3. From 2-2 to 3-3 (initial condition), the oxygen cost of my running has decreased, and my running economy has improved.
3. On my training runs, I try to focus on form, one aspect of which is a higher back kick. The latter should result in a slightly longer stride. Let's assume that the additional length of the stride (initial condition) is one inch, what's the effect on the outcome of, say, a marathon? A marathon is 26.2 x 5,280 ft. = 138,336 ft. At a stride length of 3 ft., the entire race would take 46,112 strides. If each of the strides were an inch longer, then the total extra distance covered by the same number of strides but with a back kick would be 46,112 in. / 12 ~= 3,843 ft. That's almost 3/4 mile or around 7 minutes (at 9-10 min./mi. pace)! Of course, rarely does one hold form throughout a marathon, especially towards the end. But, the potential of that initial condition is there.

Running is the perfect metaphor for life--or, is life the perfect metaphor for running? :) In both, small things (initial conditions), repeated over and over again, matter (for better or worse). Hmm, does that mean marriage is "chaotic"? :)

The primrose path to the valley of death (Wineglass Marathon race report)

This past Sunday morning, I was waiting for the start of the Wineglass Marathon, along with almost 2,000 fellow runners, couple miles outside of the town of Bath, in the beautiful Finger Lakes region of upstate New York. We were all standing there in single shirts, the temperature an unseasonably balmy 65, with humidity in the high 90%. My plan, at the end of a 16-week RYBQ training program, was to run the first part of the race (~18-20 miles) at about 10-15 seconds slower than my BQ pace (8:58 mile for a 3:55 finish time), and, then, depending on how I was feeling, to stay at that pace or try to speed up a bit and go for a sub-4:00 or at least a PR (< 4:14). This was my sixth marathon, so I was well aware of the classic mistake of starting out too fast and then hitting the wall anywhere from the half way point to Mile 20 or so. I was going to be disciplined in executing my plan and make sure I first get my PR (by shaving eight minutes off of my Rock 'n' Roll USA marathon time of 4:22). Standing there, waiting for the start, I reminded myself to follow the plan and trust the training.

But, then, I saw the 3:55 pace sign.

In hindsight, of course, I shouldn't have done what I then did, which was to decide to test my training and run with the 3:55 pacer. I should have known better. But, I had trained well, with weekly mileage peaking above 60, and I felt good and ready. The start line was at the top of a hill, and I was looking down Mt. Washington Road, that initial half mile stretch of a course that has a net elevation decrease of about 280 ft. The temptation was just too great; I couldn't resist! That 3:55 pace sign led me down the primrose path and resulted in my running the race in exactly the classic no-no way!

I pretty easily, based on perceived effort (and number of steps per breath), stayed with that 3:55 pace group through the first half (first 10K split was ~54 min.), at which point, I had to drop back for a minute or so to adjust my left sock and retie the shoe, to keep a nascent blister at the bottom of the left sole under control. Within a couple miles after the half, however, I knew I was in trouble, as I realized that I wasn't quite ready to sustain the 8:58 pace for the entire distance. The temperature and humidity obviously didn't help, but I think I simply was trying to drop too much time, from the Rock 'n' Roll USA 4:22 to a BQ 3:55. The second half was not pretty, as the 4:00, 4:10, and eventually even the 4:30 pacers passed me. For Miles 16-19, I was struggling to just keep going, against a "transitional" wall. Then, at Mile 20, nearing the end of the "20 miles of hope," I ran full-on into that textbook solid wall and the start of "6 miles of reality"--or, what I've termed the "valley of death." :) Not until the final half mile or so, as I crossed the bridge over the Chemung River into downtown Corning, NY, did I emerge from that valley of death; and not until the final left turn onto Market Street was I able to manage even a feeble kick down the three blocks to the finish line at Pine Street.

As a result of my decision to run with the 3:55 pacer, I missed out on what I still think would have been a fairly certain new PR (< 4:14, Ithaca Marathon 1982, my first one, with almost no training at all!). Was I disappointed? For sure. I thought my 16-week training had gone really well, and 3:55 was at least an outside possibility. But, many good lessons learned--though the hard way! Plus, I know better now what needs to be done to run that 3:55. There were other possibly or likely contributory factors to what happened last Sunday: 5-hour drive to Corning on Saturday; getting ready for the trip Friday evening and thus not getting a good night's sleep; on my feet Saturday afternoon touring Corning (Museum of Glass); not sufficient pre-race fueling; jogging the two miles to the start line; far-from-ideal weather and consequently perhaps drinking too much water and Gatorade, almost every two miles (hyponatremia?). But, proper pacing and the training needed to sustain the goal pace definitely are at the top of the list.

Since I've been back home, I've been reading up on pacing and discussing with other RYBQ runners and the RYBQ coach. So, an even or slightly negative pace is best, though not usually attainable, for a marathon. That 3:55 pacer could run the ideal even pace, because it was much slower than his actual race pace, had he been racing rather than pacing; whereas, for me, 3:55 was a stretch goal. Wineglass told me I wasn't ready for 3:55, which is good to know, as I look towards my next try at BQ in March 2014. I suppose I should have known from my training. But now, I know in all its gory details! What I don't know is whether I could have stayed with the 4:10 or maybe even the 4:00 pacer. What I don't know for sure is where I am right now between 4:22 and 3:55. Back to the drawing board! :)

Other than all that, Wineglass itself was great! It was a very well-run race (the other meaning!). Very scenic course. Wonderful support from local towns through which the course winds. Terrific volunteers, all some 1,500 of them! Water/Gatorade stops every two miles and Gu at around Miles 13 and 19. Logistics very well done, including ample shuttle buses to the start line and accommodating ratio of porta-potties to runners. :) Glass finisher medal, hand pressed by Hands On Glass Studio in Corning; pretty unique and #11 in the 2012 list of Top 25 marathon medals.

And, of course, wineglass and champagne!

Also, nice town, Corning, home of Corning, Inc. (formerly Corning Glass Works). For dinner: Brewing Co. and Restaurant on Market Street (Wrought Iron Red perfect for a post-race drink!).

Finish line at Market and Pine Streets, downtown Corning, NY. Clock Tower at Centerway Square to the right.

Corning Clock Tower in Centerway Square

I definitely plan to go back to Wineglass in 2014--partly, to run it the right way! :)