Running down to one's potential

It's been five weeks since that somewhat traumatic, unfinished run in the Abebe Bikila Day International Peace Marathon. Whatever had happened to my lower back around Mile 10 of that race has mostly recovered. I've been very diligent in doing my core exercises! My next marathon is Harrisburg in early November, so the current training cycle is a shortened and modified one, with just four long runs. The first one is a 13-mile test run, two weeks after Abebe Bikila, followed by runs of 16, 18, and 20 miles (this past Sunday). This week is the first of a modified 3-week taper,

Starting with the 16-mile run, I made one important change. In previous long runs, I'd run most of the second half miles at or slightly faster than my Boston qualifying (BQ) goal marathon pace (GMP), but I'd take a walking water break with about 1-2 miles to go and then run home at ~GMP plus 30 seconds. During this 16-mile run, it occurred to me that finishing long runs at a slower pace is not what my body--and mind--should get used to! So, I delayed the cool-down and finished the last three miles at 11, 23, and 28 seconds faster than GMP, smiling all the way home. :) I similarly ran the 18 and 20 miles, with generally negative splits from start to finish. As shown in the pace chart, in all three runs, I took planned walking water and Gu breaks at Miles 5, 11, and 15 (except for the 16-miler). I finished the 18- and 20-mile runs at GMP minus 50-55 seconds.

I feel good about how this training cycle has progressed and, in particular, the higher quality of the long runs. I attribute the latter to another key change I made after Abebe Bikila, which is reducing the training volume by about 25%. Previously, I'd labored just to get the second half of my long run pace down to around BQ GMP. Now, I'm running the last miles of long runs at GMP minus 30-60 seconds. Although these end of the run miles were not exactly easy, they're not major struggles either. In fact, I was quite surprised, at the end of the 18-mile run, when I saw 8:05 for the last mile. My main goal for Harrisburg is to just finish (given the DNF at Abebe Bikila). But, feeling strong from these recent long runs, I've been thinking about what is my current realistic marathon potential. Plugging in my half marathon PR in the Runner's World race times predictor results in the following chart, which shows the predicted times of shorter races very close to my actual PRs. For the marathon, however, the predicted time is about 17 minutes faster than my PR of 3:59:23 or about 3:42, which would take me way past my threshold BQ!

Are these 17 minutes currently realizable? The predicted times for marathons, more than those for shorter races, depend on all the stars being aligned on race day. Given my current level of fitness, is it just a matter of running down to my potential? Or, is more training needed to achieve a higher level of fitness, at which, even if the stars are slightly misaligned on race day, the potential could still be realized? Another way to think about the change I've made in recent long runs is I've been training, albeit for an abbreviated period, for a GMP that's faster than my BQ GMP. Will find out in Harrisburg. Oh, wait, I was planning to just finish ...

Hitting the wall ...

... in a two-mile race. What?

Couple days ago at work, I ran the semi-annual "Fun Run" that winds through parts of the Goddard campus. Though labeled as "fun," it's actually quite competitive. My first year running this was in 1997, with a time of 14:57, still my PR for the course. From 1997 to 2012, my times had ranged from 17:25 (2005) to 15:40 (2012). During this period, I mostly ran to just stay in shape. Then, in the Spring 2013 race, after having completed my first 16-week marathon training program and the Rock 'n' Roll USA marathon a month earlier, I finished the two miles in 14:59, just two seconds slower than my PR from 16 years earlier. Adaptation staying ahead of aging. :) The next two runs (Fall 2013 and Spring 2014) came in at 15:11 and 15:07.

That the average pace for 14:57 is 7:29 has been bothering me. Sure, in many aspects, shorter races (say, up to 10K) are harder to run than are longer endurance races. But, my PR paces for 10K and 5K are 7:32 and 7:23, respectively. (The 7:32 is my "modern" PR; my all-time 10K PR is 6:23. But, that's another story.) So, it's been puzzling me why I couldn't seem to go much under 15:00 for two miles. Granted, the Pikes Peek 10K course is slightly net downhill. But, the Mercy 5K course is over rolling hills and on par in difficulty with the Fun Run course, which has hills in the middle half of the first mile and in the last half mile. I figured, with the Fun Run being a mile shorter than the 5K, I should be able to go at least 8 seconds faster (7:15) and sustain that.

That was in my mind, when the race began. I don't know exactly at how fast a pace I started, but I think it was at least 7:15--and, as it soon turned out, way too fast. I was feeling good until around the half mile point and still going up the hill. Then, quite suddenly, the legs were burning, to the point that I even had a momentary thought of stopping. I didn't; but my pace significantly slowed. I had hit the wall, or at least my two-mile version of it. Obviously, only 3-4 minutes into the race, it was not a matter of glycogen depletion, as it is when one hits the marathon wall at around Mile 20. But, I was running too fast, based on my training, and the body's lactate clearance couldn't keep up with its production, resulting in the burn. I guess the principle is the same, whether for marathons or two-milers: One can't run at a pace for which one didn't specifically train--duh! Start too fast, will hit the wall, or some analog of it. Now, had I stopped and walked a bit, I would have recovered fairly quickly. But, in a two-mile race, there's no time to catch up! As it happened, I didn't stop but slowed until the burn dissipated and then picked up the pace. But, the damage was done. I finished in 16:11.

The point I keep making, mostly to myself, is that I regularly run two miles, as part of longer races or training runs, at paces that are not too far off my 7:29 two-mile PR pace. In the 2013 MCM 17.75K, Miles 6-8 were all at around 7:45. In last weekend's 18-miler, the last two miles were at 8:25 and 8:05. In recent weekly tempo runs (8 miles total), the last two of the middle four tempo miles were at 7:40. It just seems I should be able to sustain a 7:15 or faster, when the entire run is only two miles. I think the clue to why I've not yet been able to go faster is all these other two-mile paces were achieved well into the race or run, after I've had time to get into a nice rhythm, smooth and light. (See also the article, "Pace yourself.")

So, the counterpoint must be, in a short two-mile race, there's no time to get into any rhythm--unless one has specifically trained for such a distance. As for why I ran this week's Fun Run in a relatively sluggish 16:11, there are several possible "on any given day" reasons. This week is the last hard workout week of my current 16-week marathon training cycle. The day before the Fun Run was a hard workout of 10 x 90-second hill repeats (9 miles total, including warm-up and cool-down), so I was not well rested. The weather was warm and humid (near 100%). I couldn't get away from work early enough, so I'd to rush to get to the start line. There are other possible reasons, but the main underlying reason must be that I've been training for marathons and not two-mile races. The principle of training specificity!

My plan for 2015, then, is to apply this principle. I plan to skip the early spring marathon and target one towards the end of May. Before starting the training cycle for the latter, I plan to use the winter months to do more shorter-race-specific training, aimed at the spring Pikes Peek 10K and Mercy 5K, as well as the spring Fun Run. Should be fun!

The Core Curriculum (Abebe Bikila Day International Peace Marathon race report)

It wasn't quite life flashing before my eyes; but, for sure, 16 weeks of hard training flashed by around Mile 13 of the Abebe Bikila Day International Peace Marathon three weekends ago. I first began feeling that something was not quite right just past Mile 10. The legs felt way more tired than they should have at that point in the race, and the lower back muscles felt tight. That feeling gradually intensified, over the next three miles. I brought up and tried every mental routine I'd practiced in training runs, to try to calm the growing turmoil in the mind. I tried fartlek, to see if that would wake up the legs. All to no avail. I puzzled over why and frustratingly tried to find a way out of the predicament. The race course was out and back from Fletcher's Cove, along the C&O Canal Towpath (just to the right/east of the Potomac River), westward to just beyond I-495, 6.55 miles each way, done twice (see map, lower right to upper left). As I approached Fletcher's Cove, at the end of the first

13.1 miles, I managed to only slightly pick up my pace; and, as I made the turnaround (just under the "FINISH" banner in photo), I managed a weak smile, in acknowledgment of

all the staff, volunteers, and spectators cheering on the runners. Although my average pace at the turnaround was still on track to qualify for Boston (I needed a 5-minute PR), I knew I was in deep trouble--even though I didn't yet want to admit that to myself. As I headed back towards I-495, for the second 13.1, the tightening of the lower back worsened. I felt as I was running with the upper body inclined backward and with a wobbly core. Mile 14, as shown by the pace chart, was when things really fell apart. (By comparison, even the mini-disaster that was Wineglass 2013 seems fleet-footed!)

I started to run/walk and tried to consciously relax the back muscles. I continued to hope that all the problems would just go away, even as I debated with myself whether to keep going and try to just finish, or to stop and head back to Fletcher's Cove--and to my first DNF in 10 marathons. That internal debate continued over the next 5-6 miles, as I walked more and more, with periodic stretching of the back muscles. Finally, at around Mile 19, I very reluctantly decided to pull myself off the course at an aid station and eventually got a ride back to Fletcher's Cove.

How does one know when to stop and when to keep going? In hindsight, I should have stopped and headed back to Fletcher's earlier and not have risked potentially serious injury. But, a DNF is really, really, really hard to swallow! I argued to myself that, if I could just make it to the turnaround beyond I-495, I should then be able to at least finish the race. Alas, that was not to be. I'm glad, though, that the prudent part of me finally prevailed at Mile 19.

I've been rerunning this race ever since that weekend, trying to figure out what had happened. The biggest lesson, of course, is the importance of the core; without it, the rest collapses. Or, as Greg McMillan put it the other way, "When your core is strong, everything else will follow." It's not as I've been slackening in my core curriculum, so to speak; I've been conscientiously doing all my homework. Maybe I need to do the extra credit assignments as well! It was drizzling on and off throughout the first half of the race, with a short period of moderate rain as I neared Mile 13. At the time, I wondered if getting wet and cold from that rain might have been culpable. But, I've gotten wet and cold on many a training runs. So, what else could have been the causes? There were several start times scheduled. Thinking optimistically, I opted for 9 am, the one that counted for (age) awards. :) But, to be sure of a parking space near the start line, I got there around 7 am and waited. Did I get too stiff, sitting in the car? I did warm up, just before the start, with a 7-8 minute run, followed by dynamic stretching. Did I overstretch? My first three miles were at 22, 20, and 4 seconds faster than goal marathon pace (GMP). (After Wineglass, I should have known better!) Was I paying for those early miles later on? The C&O Canal Towpath is mostly a gravelly surface. I knew it probably meant a somewhat slower pace, but did it adversely affect my running form? The back part of the out and back course is down river, and, after each lock of the canal, there's a short downslope stretch of loose gravel and sand. Did I get too greedy and run those too fast? Don't really know. Could be.

More likely a reason for what happened, I now think, is over-training plus not being well-rested the day before the race. A previously scheduled event that day kept me up late into the evening, which, combined with getting up at 4 am the morning of the race, resulted in not nearly enough sleep. The weekend before the race, I ran a 5K that I'd planned to use as a taper run. But, once that gun went off, I raced it. Definitely a mistake. But, it was fun! :) Two weekends before the race, I ran my last long run (of 21 miles) before taper on the actual Towpath race course, kind of a dress rehearsal and something I don't usually have the opportunity to do. It was 92 F when I finished. So, the instruction for that day's run would be out and back, wring, and repeat. How hot was it? It was so hot I could wring a substantial amount of sweat out of my socks at the end. It was so hot my net weight loss for the run was ~5 lbs--after all the post-run water and food and, after I got home, lunch. That run took an awful lot out of me, which, at the time, I didn't fully appreciate. The 16-week training cycle for this race went really well, in the sense that I did practically every workout according to plan, and then some (e.g., most of the miles in the second half of long runs were at GMP or faster). In hindsight, though, I did too many hard workouts, without paying enough attention to the rest and recovery part of training. I shortchanged "recovery as training." That certain dull achiness around the eyes that I'd felt the day before and on the morning of the race was, I now realize, an incipient flu-like symptom. And, indeed, after the race, I did end up with some sort of mild head cold--a rare event for me--though it only lasted a few days.

In hindsight, I should have skipped that entire last hard workout week and opted for a modified 3-week taper, instead of the planned 2-week taper. If 90% of the outcome of a race is determined before one even gets to the start line, then what happened to me three weekends ago had already been determined over the course of the previous 16 weeks. I wasn't ready to race that morning. (For more on training fatigue, see this related article.)

There was no medal, of course. But I do have the shirt, which shows Abebe Bikila, the great Ethiopian runner (who famously won the 1960 Olympics marathon while running barefoot) for whom this race was organized and named. Despite what had happened, though, I had a good experience

overall, with lessons learned from the core curriculum! The race course was beautiful; fellow runners were supportive; organization was really well done; staff and volunteers were superb. And, I love injera! I'm especially thankful to the DC Capital Striders at Lock 10 for helping me get back to Fletcher's Cove. I'm planning to run this marathon in 2015, regardless whether I BQ before then. I need to finish this course!

Next up is Harrisburg in early November, for which I'm not even thinking about BQ. Recovery is going well, as is the ramping back up of workouts. My modified plan for the current shortened training cycle: Lower volume, higher quality runs, 3-week modified taper, and being totally 

rested for race day. Goal? Finish the race!