Sub3 before 73

What is the marathon question (with the emphasis on "the")? If you're thinking it’s when someone will run a sub-2 hour marathon, you would be wrong! What? How could that be! The sub-2 marathon has been, for some time, the subject of intense debate. Michael Joyner et al. (2011), in The two-hour marathon: who and when? (Journal of Applied Physiology), discussed how investigations into the physiology of the 2-hour marathon could inform who might be first and when. Using past finish times, the authors projected a when between 2022 and 2035. Joyner has long been studying the physiological factors of human endurance. He had published, in the same journal some 20 years earlier (1991), a paper on Modeling: optimal marathon performance on the basis of physiological factors. The fastest possible marathon time predicted by his model was 1:57:58. See also Phil Maffetone’s 2014 book, 1:59.

Some three months after Dennis Kimetto ran 2:02:57 at the Berlin Marathon in September 2014, a dedicated campaign, the SUB2 project, was begun to help achieve a sub-2 hour marathon within five years. The New York Times recently had a two-part article, “Man vs. Marathon,” on this project (Part1, Part2). The following figure from this article shows a projected achievement year for the sub-2 marathon in the 2030s.

Not surprisingly, the SUB2 project elicited many responses. The most critical perhaps was Ross Tucker’s article, comparing the 2-hour marathon and the 4-min mile. His objection was not that a sub-2 marathon was not possible but that it was not possible to achieve within the next five years (i.e., 2019). Alex Hutchinson took a different approach in responding, by providing a detailed analysis of what will it take to run a 2-hour marathon. A similar extrapolation of past marathon records in Hutchinson’s article as that in the SUB2 project article showed a sub-2 marathon being achieved sometime before 2030, though he ended the article with a prediction of 2075. Richard Lovett provided a similar analysis in Looking for Mr. 1:59 but without a predicted achievement year.

Of course, a sub-2 hour marathon would be a really, really big deal! But, the marathon question for me personally relates to the sub-3 hour marathon, or, more specifically, Ed Whitlock's 2:54:48 that he ran in 2004, at age 73, a world record for that age group. See two recent articles on Whitlock (1, 2). Theoretically, then, I can still run a sub-3 marathon! So, my dedicated campaign is the SUB3 project. J

Much of what Hutchinson described about the perfect race and the perfect runner that would be needed for a sub-2 marathon also applies to a sub-3 marathon. For example, one of the factors of the perfect runner is “towering self-confidence.” Hutchinson noted that “physiologists have shown that what you perceive as your physical limits depends on what you believe is possible—change your beliefs and you can push your limits.”

If I also “extrapolate” my past marathon times, my sub-3 finish would take place somewhere around 2020. J This downward trend line is representative of the adaptation to training—It is still mostly a matter of training!

The other trend, of course, is my aging curve. Aging lowers the VO2 max, decreases muscle mass, makes one less flexible, and requires longer time for healing and recovery. (VO2 max is a measure of the maximum volume of oxygen that one can use.) See Richard Lovett’s article, “The science of aging and running” (2009). Lovett wrote a related article (2015), “Mastering running as you age,” in which he discussed how to adapt to the approximately 0.7% decline in the body per year, for each major age group. There was another article that, unfortunately, I can’t locate right now that contained this key idea: The decline in long-distance running with age is relatively slow, i.e., not until around age 65 (?) does one’s potential decreases down to that of a teen. I like that! J The journal Age had a paper on the development of sport and chess performances over a lifetime (Berthelot, 2012). A characteristic growth and decline could be described by a simple model. (Here’s a summary of the paper.) Ray Fair (2007) described a similar study on age effects on rates of decline. Handy calculators based on the results from the study give predicted minimum times by age in various running and swimming events, given one’s best previous time. (Here’s a related NY Times article on Fair’s work.)

For me, there’s also a lingering outlier. Using race time predictors, my predicted and actual best times are remarkably close for all distances, except for the marathon (see figure). For the latter, even with my recent BQ time of 3:55, I’m still about 13 minutes slower than my predicted potential of 3:42. Similarly, on Athlinks, my rankings for various distances, up to the half marathon, range from a top 21% for the 10-mile to a top 34% for the 8K. For the marathon, I rank only in the top 56% (see table).

My rankings on Athlinks 

Distance	Ranking (%)
5K	28.4
8K	34.3
4M	29.8
10K	26.0
10M	20.9
13M	33.6
26M	55.8

Why is that? Typical training long runs are at about 60-90 seconds slower than one’s goal marathon pace (GMP). In the recent one to two years, my training long runs have been at only about 10-15 seconds slower than my current GMP (or BQ pace of 8:58). How come I can't seem to be able to run marathons at a much faster pace than that of training runs? True, training runs don't go 26 miles. But, is there something else? Is it a need for more mental training? Or, more physical training, e.g., to increase the strength of the back kick? Not sure, but I am working on both. The photo below (from a NY Times article on Kenya, running shoes, and bribery) shows the beautiful back kick and form in general that I'm trying to work towards.

Anyway, here’s the general plan for my SUB3 project. I don’t have a September marathon scheduled this year. Instead, before the training cycle begins for the November Harrisburg Marathon, I’ll work on speed. That will allow me, instead of using the 5K and 8K in September (that my kids and I traditionally run together) as training runs, to actually race them and try for PRs. Speed work will also help improve my efficiency for Harrisburg. My goal for the latter is 3:50 (8:47 pace), which would qualify me for Boston 2018 by 20 minutes (will be in new age group!). The qualified by 20 minutes or more group is the first one to gain entry, followed by 10 minutes or more, 5 minutes or more, and then all other time qualifiers (until all spots for that age group have been filled).

Goal for 2017: To realize my predicted potential of 3:42 (8:28 pace) and remove that lingering outlier.

Goal for 2018: To become competitive with the top finishers in my age group or ~3:30 (8:01 pace). That's around my current tempo pace. Yea, I know. J But, I do think it's realistically achievable. This is my main goal for the SUB3 project, part 1. Will see how far I get!

That would leave a couple more years to complete part 2--which is an altogether different kind of story! J