"You can only read them and weep."

That quote is from an article about the most recent world record set by Ed Whitlock at the Toronto Waterfront Marathon. The author was referring to Whitlock's 22 single-age records, for 5K, half marathon, and marathon. The first part of the quote is "If you are a 60- or 70- or 80-year-old runner, ..." I guess one could respond that way to Whitlock's new record--3:56:38 at age 85--and all his other records. They do seem almost superhuman.

Or, one can read about these records and think, hey, that means the potential is there! It is humanly possible to run a sub-4 at age 85, or a sub-3 at age 74! All those records of Whitlock can either be fascinating statistics but totally unrelated to "regular" runners, or powerful motivation pulling one forward to test what a human body--what a specific human body--can do. How far into one's life can the adaptation curve be kept above the aging curve?

In the article, there's a comparison of the marathon time/5K time ratio between Galen Rupp and Whitlock. For Rupp, his bronze finish time at the Rio Olympics of 2:10:05 and his best 2016 5K finish of 13:21 result in a ratio of 9.78. For Whitlock, the two finish times of 3:56:38 and 24:04 result in a ratio of 9.82. What this ratio indicates is how well one maintains pace as distance increases from 5K to marathon. So, despite the 55-year difference in age, Whitlock maintains pace nearly as well as does Rupp. Me? My best marathon time this year was 3:55:00 (BQ run at Pocono this past May) and best 5K was 24:53, for a ratio of 9.44. Now, I ran this 5K during the post-Pocono recovery period, so the time was relatively slow, resulting in the relatively low ratio. If I use my 5K PR of 22:54 (2013), then the ratio becomes 10.26. My current potential marathon time, based on one of those race time predictors, is about 13 minutes faster than my PR (BQ), or 3:42:00. The following chart shows my predicted vs. actual times for five distances, based on my half marathon PR time. The predicted times are quite close to actual times, for all distances except the marathon. I regard this 13-minute potential as realistically realizable. I just haven't quite figured out what adjustments I need to make, to close this gap between predicted and actual marathon times. Anyway, if I use the predicted time of 3:42:00 with the 5K time of 22:54, then the ratio becomes 9.83, comparable to those of Rupp and Whitlock.

The bottom line to all this? Age really is just a number!

Regaining lost fitness and planning for Harrisburg

In my post on recovering from that July heel injury, I'd noted that the lost fitness over the month-long layoff was slowly being regained. Here's an update and what it tells me on how to plan for the upcoming Harrisburg Marathon. The following pace chart is of the four post-recovery long runs (i.e., 11 miles or longer) so far and, for comparison, of the April 10th 19-mile run. The pace for the latter is at about my current BQ pace of 8:58.

Overall, I'm encouraged by the rate of increase in pace, reflecting a steady improvement in fitness over the four runs of increasing distance. The pace has improved (10:00, 9:53, 9:39, 9:32), even as the distance increased (12, 15, 17, 18 miles, respectively). I ran by effort, which I tried to keep the same from run to run. So, the pace became faster, not because I was pushing harder, but because I was regaining my fitness. The other factor was the walks I took for water and fuel (dates or gel). The distance of these walks decreased over the four runs, from 0.15-0.20 mile to 0.10 mile to, for the last two runs, 0.05-0.07 mile. These walks were taken at just before 5, 10, and 15 miles (except for September 25, which was just before Mile 14). For the April 10th run, water and dates were taken on the run at Miles 5 and 10.

The key to what I think has been, thus far, a fairly successful post-recovery training is the slow and careful increase in mileage and effort. Even though the estimated 10% decrease in fitness after a month-long layoff seems low, at least for me, the rate of improvement in post-recovery fitness has been quicker than I'd anticipated. The adaptation curve is still staying above the aging curve! :)

Looking ahead, next week is a cutback week. The long run should be 19 miles, according to my training plan. Instead, I'll be running the Baltimore Half, as a training run. Then, for the following weekend, I'll do a final long run of 20 miles. If the trend in pace improvement continues, I should be at ~9:20, before starting the three-week taper.

For Harrisburg, a 9:20 pace would be ~4:05. That would be five minutes faster than my BQ time for Boston 2018 (4:10), which, because I'll be in the next age group, is 15 minutes slower than my current BQ of 3:55. I had been aiming for 3:50 or 20 minutes faster than the 2018 BQ. But, I'll be quite happy with a 4:05, given my injury-affected training cycle; though, I think a sub-4 is still possible. On any given Sunday ... :)

From one moment to the next ...

From despair to ... hey, it's gone! That often seems to be the case, in recovering from an injury. As the period of forced layoff gets longer and longer, one's thoughts get darker and darker, as in what if I can't ever run again!!!

Then, one day, just like that, it's gone!

That's more or less what happened in my recovery from that heel injury 10 weeks ago. I had to stay off the road for four whole weeks, the longest such period since I began to "seriously" train six some years ago. What helped with the healing was this foot massage wooden roller. More on this later.

After a four-week layoff and mindful of the need to be patient in resuming training, I've been very careful in slowly increasing mileage, over the subsequent six weeks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 6, 6.5, 7, 3 (5K race), 4, 8, 4, 5 (8K race), 12, 4, 6, 4, 15 (last Sunday), generally skipping a day in between runs. The 5K and 8K races were two of several that my kids and I run together each year, kind of a family tradition. So, I still ran them--though cautiously--and was quite relieved each time that the left heel came through fine. As with mileage, I slowly re-introduced workout components: strides, hill sprints, hill repeats, tempo runs, long runs (i.e., 11 miles or more). The first long run was two Sundays ago (12 miles); the second one was last Sunday (15 miles). Both were ~1 min/mi slower than my average long run pace leading up to Pocono.

The following pace chart shows the two recent long runs compared with the three long runs before Pocono. The loss in fitness, due to the month-long layoff, is significant, even considering the difference between the cooler pre-Pocono and the warmer September temperatures. The three long runs were at ~GMP for my current BQ (8:58), and I mostly hydrated and fueled on the run. The only exception was during the April 17th run, around Mile 5, on a hill up to the campus of Cornell University. In contrast, during both of the September runs, I had to (or felt as) take a 0.10-0.20-mile water/fuel walk every five miles or so. The two "sub-GMP" miles (12, 13) of the September 25th run were ~30-40 sec slower than the comparable pace before Pocono. (I usually try to run sub-GMP for the back half of long runs.) The lost fitness, though, is being slowly regained. Compared with September 18th, the run on the 25th was 7 sec/mi fitter. :) It felt easier and the legs felt stronger, even though the run was three miles longer.

So, the main conclusion from my recent injury and recovery is that the estimated 10% decrease in fitness after a month-long layoff seems on the low side. Or, there needs to be an age-adjustment to the estimates! The decrease in fitness is not just physical but also mental--indeed, perhaps especially mental. In the first longish run, all of six miles, two weeks after I began running again, I struggled against wanting to stop and walk at just over three miles!

Back to healing the heel. During that month off the road, I read up on various foot core exercises and ways to improve foot strength and began to incorporate some of them into my workouts. Then, I came across this article on plantar fasciitis and the benefits of deep-tissue massage. So, I dug out the foot massage wooden roller (photo above), which has been lying around the house mostly unused. I began using it daily, with one foot or both feet, with varying pressure, and with different combinations of rollers massaging different parts of the sole. Totally unscientifically (!), but I think the massager has played a major role in my heel's recovery. In any case, I've incorporated it into my post-run routines.

How do I get back sort of on track for the upcoming Harrisburg Marathon in November? This is the end of Week 10 already, in the 16-week training cycle. Tomorrow's long run should be 19 miles. I'm planning to do 17. I should have already done nine previous long runs (of 11-18 miles). I've done two so far, 12 and 15. There are four more long runs, before the 3-week taper, including the Baltimore Half as a training run. I'm planning to get up to 20 miles for the last long run. Still, I probably should readjust expectations for Harrisburg. I'm definitely rethinking how to run that race.