Any given Sunday (Run for the Red Marathon 2015 race report)

Any given Sunday, if all the conditions are perfect and if all the stars are aligned, a runner whose months of pre-race training had gone well and whose proximal days of pre-race preparation had been smooth could actually finish with a time close to that calculated by those race times predictors. Alas, rare is that kind of Sunday!

Leading up to the Run for the Red Marathon (Pocono Summit to Stroudsburg, PA) six weeks ago, I was cautiously optimistic about qualifying for Boston 2016. My BQ is 3:55; my PR (3:59:23) was run at the 2014 Run for the Red. So, I was within 5 minutes of my BQ or within ~7 minutes of being able to actually register for Boston, based on the Boston 2015 times. Most of my long training runs (up to 22 miles) had been within 25 seconds of goal marathon pace (GMP) of 8:58; and, for many of the runs, the second half of the miles had been near or faster than GMP. Because I didn't schedule an early spring marathon, I had a full 16-week training cycle. And, except for a relatively slight injury to my right Achilles tendon, which reduced my mileage for a week or so, I felt great through the entire cycle. Based on my pace for easy long runs as a metric for running progress, I was even considering 3:50 as being possible. If all the conditions were perfect and if all the stars were aligned, I might even finish with a time close to that calculated by the Runner's World race times predictor (3:42)!

Any given Sunday, though, the conditions could be far from perfect and the stars could be drunkenly misaligned. As I was standing near the track of the Pocono Mountain West High School up on Pocono Summit and waiting for the start of the race, I was thinking about the previous afternoon at the Stroudsburg High School, where I was waiting in line to pick up my packet and listening to the repeated warnings given to the runners about the unseasonably high temperature forecast for race day (~mid-60 at the start and ~mid-80 at the finish, some 20 degrees higher than the 2014 temperatures). After talking with the race staff and some of the pacers, I had mixed feelings. Disappointed: After 16 weeks and feeling fairly confident about qualifying for Boston, only to be denied because of weather on that given Sunday. Hopeful: I could adjust my goal time to account for the weather, perhaps to 3:59 (and a new PR) or, more conservatively, 4:08 (to beat my Harrisburg time for all-time second fastest). Or, given how good I was feeling, still try for 3:55. As the clock ticked towards the start of the race, I eventually decided to go with the 3:55 pacer. The fact that the race organizers shifted all the pacers back by only 5 minutes (3:05 pacer did the 3:10, 3:10 did the 3:15, etc.) gave me some additional confidence that 3:55 was not crazy out of the question.

I finished with a 4:12:51, some 13+ minutes slower than my PR run in 2014. The 20 degrees warmer and high humidity weather eventually took its toll in the last 10K. Visually, my face was covered with salt from the sweat. Do I regret not playing it safe? No, not really. Now I know where I am relative to BQ. Here's my pacing for the race. Miles 19 and 20 are when the accumulated heat stress

caught up with me, even though I did a 10-count slowdown at every water stop and drank, more frequently than I normally would do. Miles 22-23 were the worst and where I walked the most; my legs felt as there was nothing left. The last three miles felt better, partly because, as the slower (than 3:55) pacers were passing me, I tried to stay with them. There were quite a few casualties of the heat along the way, mostly related to cramps; though, there was one serious heart-related collapse at around Mile 21 (fortunately, CPR from a passing runner and emergency medical personnel for the race being nearby resulted in a happy ending).

Chervront et al. (2010) is a review paper (Journal of Applied Physiology) on "Mechanisms of aerobic performance impairment with heat stress and dehydration," in which the authors showed the following nomogram (performance decrement v. time):

(This nomogram originally appeared in a paper by Ely et al. (2007) on "Impact of weather on marathon-running performance," in the journal Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise. A summary was later provided in Marathon Performance and Temperature.) A 3:00 marathoner at 25C (about the average temperature for that Pocono Sunday) would expect about a 21-minute slower time. For a 4:00 runner (like me), even more. Even using the 3:00 numbers (180 min., 25C curve, 12% decrement), a 4:00 would expect about a 29-minute slower time. Based on the latter, my time of 4:12:51, which is 18 minutes slower than my BQ, would be, if adjusted for temperature, 11 minutes faster than BQ! Too bad BAA doesn't allow for such adjustments. :)

About the Pocono Marathon itself, I'd previously written in detail for the 2014 Run for the Red. This was the 10th anniversary of the race; and, this race has become one of my favorite marathons.

With a field from 600 to 1,000 runners, the race has a nice intimate feel to it. Volunteers are superb, as is the community support along the way, especially at the half way point. With the heat this year, many people who lived along the course were out with sprinklers, ice, and wet towels, all very welcomed! One difference this year were the cars on some of the roads, which I don't remember seeing in 2014. Police cruisers tried to "pace" the cars behind them, to slow them down; though, some of the cars still zipped by the runners pretty fast. Post-race food was standard, but that didn't matter much to me; I didn't feel like eating anything, except for a few slices of orange. The pasta dinner Saturday night hosted by the local Rotary Club was very nice and a good deal; I hope they continue doing that for future races. The course is net downhill but kind of deceptive, because most of the net elevation loss comes during the first 2/3 of the course, whereas the last 10K+ is rolling to hilly.

The race tech shirt has a minimalist design, which I favor.

I also really like the stadium finish at Stroudsburg High School. Clock at finish showed gun time.

Overall, on that given Sunday, despite the significant heat-caused slowdown in the last 10K of the race, I was happy with my decision to go for 3:55 and satisfied with my time of 4:12:51 (my third fastest). I guess my strategy of running faster to finish before the temperature got too high didn't quite work! :) My temperature-adjusted 11 minutes faster than BQ is 3:44, which is pretty close to the 3:42 calculated by the Runner's World race times predictor. Coincidence? I'd like to think not! And that gives me much confidence, that I "technically" BQ'ed. :)